Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.043703 0.050272 0.057126 0.064783 0.073066 0.081727 0.091440
2025-03-23 0.034127 0.043795 0.054551 0.067257 0.081712 0.097512 0.115956
2025-03-30 0.027355 0.038795 0.052261 0.068920 0.088636 0.110913 0.137677
2025-04-06 0.023304 0.036086 0.051869 0.072138 0.096869 0.125510 0.160646
2025-04-13 0.018708 0.031855 0.048922 0.071674 0.100258 0.134133 0.176485
2025-04-20 0.017117 0.031292 0.050376 0.076486 0.109944 0.150203 0.201155
2025-04-27 0.013585 0.027431 0.047018 0.074737 0.111161 0.155818 0.213186
2025-05-04 0.012077 0.026314 0.047207 0.077498 0.117997 0.168289 0.233546
2025-05-11 0.009874 0.023738 0.045042 0.076845 0.120246 0.174942 0.246726
2025-05-18 0.008677 0.022628 0.044870 0.078828 0.125890 0.185853 0.265206
2025-05-25 0.007514 0.021375 0.044335 0.080193 0.130647 0.195616 0.282283
2025-06-01 0.005715 0.018569 0.041094 0.077414 0.129598 0.197766 0.289678
2025-06-08 0.004064 0.015720 0.037625 0.074304 0.128275 0.199920 0.297664
2025-06-15 0.003530 0.015201 0.038050 0.077127 0.135378 0.213374 0.320446
2025-06-22 0.002941 0.014388 0.037872 0.078979 0.141124 0.225100 0.341145
2025-06-29 0.002622 0.014183 0.038754 0.082499 0.149304 0.240168 0.366317
2025-07-06 0.001955 0.012757 0.037198 0.081996 0.151577 0.247245 0.381084
2025-07-13 0.001887 0.013140 0.039137 0.087236 0.162345 0.265963 0.411267
2025-07-20 0.001286 0.011475 0.036845 0.085334 0.162450 0.270059 0.422170
2025-07-27 0.001110 0.011263 0.037475 0.088337 0.169904 0.284312 0.446612
2025-08-03 0.000766 0.010117 0.035994 0.087628 0.171692 0.290698 0.460594
2025-08-10 0.000617 0.009756 0.036174 0.089784 0.177852 0.303205 0.482828
2025-08-17 0.000469 0.009263 0.035992 0.091267 0.182970 0.314271 0.503175